The odds may be stacked against him, but Sestak has proven to be resilient before.

By: Josh Uhr

Arlen Specter, who has represented Pennsylvania in the U.S. Senate as a Republican for three decades, is up for reelection in 2010. But first he needs to win the primary--the Democratic primary. In April 2009, the long-time Republican senator announced, “as the Republican Party has moved farther and farther to the right, I have found myself increasingly at odds with the Republican philosophy and more in line with the philosophy of the Democratic Party.” But Specter’s switch is not nearly as noble as it appears to be. It comes at a time that is, not coincidentally, critically important for the survival of his political career. Former Representative Pat Toomey, who lost his bid for Senate in 2004 to Specter by only two percentage points, has announced that he is running again in the upcoming elections, and he is expected to win the Republican nomination. Quite simply, if Specter ran against Toomey in the Republican primary, his chances of winning it would have been slim.

But Specter, the longest-serving senator in Pennsylvania’s history, is not yet ready to abandon his seat in Washington’s Capitol Building. He did what he saw as his best option: switch parties to avoid running in a close race. He acknowledged this in the press conference announcing his switch, admitting that his “prospects for winning a Republican primary [would be] bleak.”

So what are his prospects for winning a Democratic primary? Not as good as he originally thought, since Representative Joe Sestak has subsequently jumped into the race. Sestak, “[a Democrat] by choice,” as opposed to “by necessity,” as Muhlenberg College’s Chris Borick told TIME Magazine, has represented the southern and western suburbs of Philadelphia in the U.S. Congress since his election in 2006. Before that, he spent three decades serving in the Navy, working his way up to the rank of 3-star Admiral.

Although Sestak may pose a threat to Specter, he is not widely known outside of Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District. Since he announced his candidacy, his campaign has taken him all over the state. Persuading millions of people, however, to support an unfamiliar Congressman over Specter, a name every Pennsylvanian knows, is an uphill battle. Making his climb even steeper is that almost every big name in the Democratic establishment--at the national, state, and local level--has endorsed Specter’s candidacy, including President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, and many mayors and local politicians. Furthermore, the latest Quinnipiac University poll (at the time of this writing) shows Specter leading Sestak 44% to 25% among registered Pennsylvania democrats.

The odds may be stacked against him, but Sestak has proven to be resilient before. He defeated former Representative Curt Weldon, who served Pennsylvania’s 7th District for two decades, in the 2006 Congressional elections by eight percentage points (polls placed Weldon ten percentage points ahead of Sestak months earlier). And it is not unheard of for a little-known candidate to rise up and defeat his already established and connected opponent in a political contest (think Barack Obama). That said, it is not easy to draw parallels between Obama’s and Sestak’s respective situations. Sestak’s candidacy is not groundbreaking, so he doesn’t have that momentum to propel him forward. Furthermore, unlike Obama, he does not have two years to make the case for himself – he only has nine months.

One thing that Sestak does have going for him, though, is that he is genuinely passionate about the democratic ideals he stands for, and he really cares about the people he represents. Unlike Arlen Specter, Sestak is not another career politician eager to hold on to his power. After all, he first held public office only three years ago, after retiring from a lifelong military career. Moreover, he commits to certain positions on political issues not because of their popularity, or lack thereof, among voters; instead, he stands for what he believes is right, the reason he entered the political arena in the first place.

As one of his constituents, I have had the pleasure of meeting him several times, and his compassion becomes especially apparent when speaking with him. His other constituents must see it too – they reelected him to the House for a second term by a 20-point margin. Therefore, I am optimistic and cautiously confident that after nine months of traversing Pennsylvania and speaking with and listening to voters, Representative Sestak will be able to rally the support he needs to defeat Senator Specter in the Democratic primary for Senate.