By: Josh Uhr

Since Obama’s election last November, talk and speculation about the future of the Republican Party has been rampant. But speculate seems to be all we can do for the time being, at least until 2010’s congressional elections shed more light on how divided the party really is and how much it may have already healed from the wounds inflicted by scandal, unpopular warfare, and financial hardship during the Bush presidency. But who really wants to wait for 2010? I know I don’t, and for those of you who are as impatient as I am, here’s some good news: you don’t have to.

Why not? Because the upcoming special election in Upstate New York’s 23rd Congressional District might reveal just how much the party remains divided almost a year after Senator John McCain failed to unite Republicans in support of his presidential bid. Allow me to paint the scene: the district is mostly rural, and it encompasses much of the Adirondack Mountains. It’s also traditionally Republican. In fact, in the past seven congressional elections, a Republican has never won with less than 60% of the vote. Last November, however, President Obama carried many of the counties within the district’s boundaries in the general election. And as I sit here writing this article, another heated political battle is being waged in the district, which currently has no representation in the House of Representatives since Obama chose Rep. John McHugh (R-NY) to serve as the Secretary of the Army.

In this political contest, which sharply breaks from trends in ones previously fought in the district, polls have the Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, trailing the Democratic contender, Bill Owens, by 5 percentage points. The district, however, is not becoming significantly more Democratic, if at all. So, what’s causing the surprising polling results? Rifts in the Republican Party.

In this election, scheduled for November 3, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman will likely block Scozzafava’s path to the United States Capitol. Hoffman’s candidacy, according to the latest Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll, is supported by 23% of the district’s population, compared to Scozzafava’s 30%. Hoffman is popular in the district because of his (unsurprisingly, given the name of his party) conservative values. Unlike his Republican opponent, he stands against gay marriage and abortion rights. More simply, he appeals to the socially conservative Republican base more than the relatively liberal Scozzafava does.

While I think any election is fun to follow (I am a government major, after all), this one is particularly exciting because of the implications it could have for the GOP, which is built on two separate and largely unrelated bases – the socially conservative base and the financially conservative base. Scozzafava believes that the government does not have a role in business, according to her campaign website, a belief shared by what I’ll call financial Republicans. But she alienates social Republicans with her views on gay marriage and abortion, two hot issues in contemporary American politics.

This is where Hoffman comes in to the picture – he appeals to the social conservatives that are unsatisfied with their Republican candidate, and hence the division in the Republican Party. Each party base, both of which have traditionally voted Republican, has its own candidate in this election. Furthermore, it’s not just Upstate New York Republicans that are split between the two politicians. The national Republican establishment itself is divided over this election. Many powerful party figures have endorsed Hoffman; among them are frighteningly conservative former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and former Senators Rick Santorum and Fred Thompson. Others in the party, like former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, have rallied behind Scozzafava. The divided support may well result in the election of a Democrat in a district that is anything but Democratic.

If the polls are accurate and Bill Owens does take New York’s 23rd, what would this mean for the party whose two bases seem to be increasingly at odds? It’s hard to say with any substantial level of confidence, but it seems to me that the Republican Party’s political woes in the district are a result of trends moving through conservative blocs across the country. For a more definite answer to that question, though, it looks like we might just have to wait for 2010’s midterm elections.