Clinton Wins Pennsylvania. Where Does the Race Go From Here?
Many Democrats fear that a brokered convention like this would divide the party, causing the Democratic candidate to lose to McCain in November. Observing the Pennsylvania results, each candidate clearly has a fairly established bloc of voters – Clinton winning over older, working class, and white voters; Obama winning African American, upper class, and young voters.
The weekend before the primary, I had the privilege of attending rallies for both candidates, and listening to the different ways in which the two spoke to their respective coalitions was fascinating. Speaking in the small, working class town of York, Clinton told personal anecdotes about her grandfather, a working class man from Scranton, Penn. She portrayed herself as a fighter who will take on corporations that want to export jobs, and ensure that working people would see a return to prosperity under her administration.
That same day, I heard Obama speak in the city of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania’s capitol. Speaking to an urban crowd of thousands, he talked about ending the divisive politics of Washington in order to accomplish real change. Obama emphasized that as president, he would not be influenced by lobbyists, and he would not be distracted by the old political games. The two candidates talked essentially about the same policies, but they differed in tone and leadership styles.
If Obama were to be the nominee, there is concern that he would fail to get the support of the working class, rural, and low-income voters who have strongly and faithfully supported Clinton. Were Clinton to win the nomination, however, there would be concern over whether she could sway African American and new younger voters who have turned out for Obama in unprecedented numbers. Despite what now appear to be clear divisions within the Democratic Party, it seems unlikely that these types of splits will materialize. The distinctions between the two Democrats will seem trivial once the nominee is contrasted with McCain. Increased Democratic voter turnout as well as the tremendous fundraising ability of both candidates will likely carry through to the general election, no matter who becomes the nominee.
Overall, the principal effect of the Pennsylvania primary is that Clinton will continue to fight for the nomination. After winning by a sizable margin, she feels that she has no reason to drop out of the race, because Obama has yet to close the deal with the voters. That said, the numbers still do not favor Clinton. Though she won the popular vote in Pennsylvania decisively, she will only net a handful of delegates, and will still trail in the overall popular vote. For Clinton to win the overall popular vote, she would need to win the remaining primaries by large vote margins and have the Florida vote reinstated. That scenario might rely on Obama making a serious gaffe or suffering a new controversial revelation that severely damaged his candidacy.
Whatever happens, the Republicans can rest assured that they will face a united, and spirited Democratic Party in the fall. While the divisions between Obama and Clinton supporters may seem significant in the heat of the fight for the nomination, once a Democratic candidate is up against Senator McCain, Democrats will quickly unite behind their nominee.